Wednesday, April 5, 2017

#A-Unauthorized annotation of Chairman Lamar Smith’s March 29 Climate Science statement. (1 of 2)

US House Science, Space and Technology Committee Chairman Lamar Smith had a hearing March 29 during which he made many claims and insinuations which are frankly false.  
In this exercise I keep my commentary to a minimum and allow scientists to speak for themselves by way of a number of embedded YouTube videos.  If the videos don’t work for you, I’ve included the URL’s so you can link to them.  I also included links to other resources where appropriate.  This collection is for sharing.  For more of an introduction you might try: Confirmed Lamar Smith Manipulated Bates (feb 5th) A Line by Line Review.  Official Hearing Record:

For Immediate Release Media Contact: March 29, 2017
Statement of Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Texas)
Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications, and the Scientific Method Part 1 {Link to Part 2}

Chairman Smith: Today we will examine the scientific method as it relates to climate change. We must ensure that the underlying science that informs policy decisions is based on credible scientific methodology.
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2015 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION | August 2016 (v97n8)
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A Climate Minute - Climate Science History
John P Reisman  |  (starts at 0:17)
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I believe the climate is changing and that humans play a role. 
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Tendency to underestimate climate impacts
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However, I also believe significant questions remain as to the extent.
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WHAT ARE THESE SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS?  

Why are they never listed in a constructive good-faith manner?  

Instead it’s always this vague political insinuation built on personal incredulity - something that has nothing to do with learning about the scientific method or the evidence.

NOAA National Climate Data Center - 
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Global Change Indicators
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Climate change: How do we know?
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A collection of the arguments and the science behind them.
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Our actions must be based on sound science.  This is the only way we will be able to better address climate change.
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Sound science is a often used by corporate public relations and government agency spokesmen to describe the scientific research used to justify a claim or position. Sound science, however, has no specific scientific definition itself, so the phrase is used subjectively.   
"Sound science" is not a synonym of "good science" practices, but rather it is an ideological policy statement more about the criteria for the use of science in policy making. It is invoked mostly to call into question the validity of a given study or scientific statement.  
Lack of "sound science" is a common critique used against public health and consumer activists in an attempt to discredit their concerns about public safety and environmental risk. Junk science is often presented as the opposite of "sound science," usually for propagandistic purposes that favor industry.   http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Sound_science
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What drives scientists? - Richard Alley's Golden Nugget
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Serious Science looks like this:
Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis


Executive Summary ...................................................... 95
1.1 Overview of the Chapter ................................... 95
1.2 The Nature of Earth Science ............................ 95
1.3 Examples of Progress in Detecting and Attributing Recent Climate Change .…. 100
1.3.1 The Human Fingerprint on Greenhouse Gases ....................... 100
1.3.2 GlobalSurfaceTemperature................................100
1.3.3 DetectionandAttribution....................................102
1.4 Examples of Progress in Understanding Climate Processes ...... 103
1.4.1 The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect ............................ 103
1.4.2 Past Climate Observations, Astronomical
Theory and Abrupt Climate Changes .................. 106
1.4.3 Solar Variability and the Total Solar Irradiance........ 107
1.4.4 Biogeochemistry and Radiative Forcing.............. 108
1.4.5 CryosphericTopics..............................................110
1.4.6 Ocean and Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics............................................................. 111
1.5 Examples of Progress in Modelling the Climate ................................................................... 112
1.5.1 Model Evolution and Model Hierarchies.............. 112
1.5.2 Model Clouds and Climate Sensitivity................. 114
1.5.3 Coupled Models: Evolution, Use,
Assessment ......................................................... 117
1.6   The IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and Uncertainties.......... 118
Box 1.1: Treatment of Uncertainties in the Working Group I Assessment .... 120
1.7 Summary...............................................................121 
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ 1.1: What Factors Determine Earth’s Climate? ................ 96 
FAQ 1.2: What is the Relationship between Climate Change
and Weather? ...................................................... 104 
FAQ 1.3: What is the Greenhouse Effect? ............................. 115 References........................................................................ 122
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Before we impose costly government regulations, we should evaluate scientific uncertainties and ascertain the extent to which they make it difficult to quantify humans’ contribution to climate change.
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It would be far more constructive to take a moment and learn about all we do understand, it tells us plenty. 

The global climate 2011-2015: heat records and high impact weather
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As for the GOP’s faux Global Warming “Hiatus,” here’s the rest of the story:
“Reshuffling Heat on a Warming Planet”
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Trouble at Totten Glacier
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Far too often, alarmist theories on climate science originate with scientists who operate outside of the principles of the scientific method.
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Not true, it’s driven by down to Earth facts.  In the real world this is what’s happening and it will have increasing consequences.  It’s delusion to think it wouldn’t.

Pumphandle 2012: History of atmospheric carbon dioxide  |  CarbonTracker
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Global climate spiral | paulclow
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The scientific method is a simple process that has been used for centuries. It involves identifying a question, developing a hypothesis, constructing an experiment, and analyzing the results. 
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Lecture 1 - Scope of the Class - PHSC 13400: Global Warming
The University of Chicago | Professor David Archer
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If the results do not align with the original hypothesis, the hypothesis must be re-examined.
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Admiral David Titley on Satellite Temperature and Climate Models
greenmanbucket | Published on Dec 9, 2015
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Tyndall Lecture: GC43I. Successful Predictions - 2012 AGU Fall Meeting
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The scientific method welcomes critiques so theories can be refined. And it avoids speculation about distant events for which there is no hard proof.
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I have spent decades watching the theory evolve into solid understanding and now watching the beginnings of our planet’s biosphere’s unraveling, as we leave the climate regime than enabled complex human society to develop these past ten thousand years.  How rapidly we squandered a great deal.

I know that climate scientists have had vigorous constructive debate all along.  Sadly special interests and politicians such a Lamar Smith have taken advantage of that honest constructive debate to cherry pick and redirect the public discussion into irrelevant dead-ends, such as these latest hearings.  Here’s a taste of the unfolding reality that will increasingly dictate our days, no matter what the fine print on the graphs say.

Jennifer Francis - Understanding the Jet Stream
George Morrison  |  February 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo&t=22s
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Jennifer Francis: A New Arctic Feedback
greenmanbucket  |  January 2017
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Weather extremes: Humans likely influence giant airstreams
March 27, 2017
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Alarmist predictions amount to nothing more than wild guesses. The ability to predict far into the future is impossible. Anyone stating what the climate will be in 500 years or even at the end of the century is not credible.
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Nonsense Mr. Smith, Refusing to look at the evidence, does not make it go away!

2. Climate Change -- the objections
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All too often, scientists ignore the basic tenants of science in order to justify their claims. Their ultimate goal appears to be to promote a personal agenda, even if the evidence doesn’t support it.
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Oh the irony, Dr. Mann had a few words for the politician Lamar Smith.


Michael Mann PhD at House Science, Space and Technology Committee
greenmanbucket | March 2017
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The scientific method is regarded as the “foundation of modern science.” It ensures that scientific experimentation is neither arbitrary nor subjective, and that results can be replicated.
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Stephen Schneider: Climate Science as a System Science 
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In the field of climate science, there is legitimate concern that scientists are biased in favor of reaching predetermined conclusions.
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Only within the self-certain contrarian echo chamber, behold, but a sampling:

Lamar Smith, unbound, lays out political strategy at climate doubters’ conference
By Jeffrey Mervis  March 24, 2017
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The sequel: Influential House member plans to rekindle debate over NSF policies
By Jeffrey Mervis | March 14, 2017
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Chair of House Science Committee Says the Journal ‘Science’ Is Not Objective
Chairman Lamar Smith dismissed … one of the oldest and most prestigious scientific publications in existence.
By Alex Kasprak | March 29, 2017
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Lamar Smith claims climate scientists not following scientific method.
Head of House Science Committee makes accusations he fails to back up.
John Timmer - 3/29/2017
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If You Liked the Inquisition, You'll Love the House Science Committee
Lamar Smith has some new weapons in his battle against the nation's scientists.
Rebecca Leber | JAN. 31, 2017
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A list of modern marvels that would be impossible if Rep Smith’s implications had a shadow of truth in them.  
CO2 Science, just the facts.
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This inevitably leads to alarmist findings that are wrongfully reported as facts.
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Yeah, like what?  Fractions on graphs?  What about the real world happenings?

Climate 101: Understanding Climate Change 
and the Redistribution of Heat, Winds, Water, and Worries  |  TheUSCenter
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The global climate 2011-2015: heat records and high impact weather
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The scientific method also requires that for a hypothesis to become a theory, a repeated validation of the results – called reproducibility – should be possible. However, a recent survey found that 70% of scientific researchers have tried and failed to reproduce the experiments conducted by other scientists.
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What about real down to Earth evidence?

Climate models are accurately predicting ocean and global warming
John Abraham | Wednesday 27 July 2016
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The lack of reproducibility is a warning that the scientific method is not being followed and that the theory may lack credibility.
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That’s why America can’t afford this stupid ruthless power-political game Lamar Smith is playing - but here we are.  The consequences will be significant, avarice and short-term self-interest always backfires.  Personal note it’s still tough to absorb that voters gave their government to these self-proclaimed vandals.  The pain of a sleeping public will be tremendous, wait and see.

‘An Era Of Extreme Weather’: Report Shows Big Weather Events Cost U.S. $19 Billion In 2014
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Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s
Wei Mei & Shang-Ping Xie
“… We find that the increased intensity of landfalling typhoons is due to strengthened intensification rates, which in turn are tied to locally enhanced ocean surface warming on the rim of East and Southeast Asia. The projected ocean surface warming pattern under increasing greenhouse gas forcing suggests that typhoons striking eastern mainland China, Taiwan, Korea and Japan will intensify further. Given disproportionate damages by intense typhoons1, this represents a heightened threat to people and properties in the region.”
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To restore faith in science, we must uphold the principles of scientific integrity. 
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This is Lamar Smith, and the GOP's idea of restoring science, cripple it:

An executive order sent the message that climate change doesn’t matter, and the NIH was threatened with an imminent budget cut. Brian Resnick  |  Mar 31, 2017
  1. An executive order with a clear message: climate change doesn’t matter
1 Roll back the Clean Power Plan (Obama’s plan to cut emissions from existing US power plants 32 percent below 2005 levels by 2030)
2 Reconsider standards for carbon emission at new coal power plants
3 Reconsider methane emission standards for oil and gas production
4 Potentially readjust the “social cost of carbon” — which helps the government weigh the costs and benefits of new regulations
5 Lift the moratorium on federal coal leasing
6 Repeal the guidance that the government needs to factor in climate change when it reviews impacts of new problems
7 Roll back Obama-era climate executive orders on climate — including one on preparing for extreme weather
8 Instruct all federal agencies to review all rules and policies for potential impacts to energy production

2) Trump’s requests for the final 2017 budget contain considerable cuts to scientific research

3) The White House doesn’t seem interested in staffing up on science and technology policy experts

4) The chair of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology continued his attack on scientific institutions and expertise

5) The House passed two bills that would stifle science at the EPA
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Continued at Part 2 - http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2017/04/b-unauthorized-annotation-march29.html

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